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Given the collection periods ending last night at midnight at the absolute latest, the latest sentiment surveys would have hardly captured shifts in outlook following the latest FOMC decision or the strong market reaction to the FOMC. That is to say, the latest AAII sentiment survey can be considered a bit stale. Regardless, the latest week’s survey from AAII showed a modest increase in the percentage of respondents reporting as bullish. While still below the high of 31% from two weeks ago, 29.9% of investors reported as bullish this week.
It is a similar picture for bearish sentiment. 34.6% reported as bearish in the latest week, which remains at the low end of the past year’s range of readings but slightly above the more recent low from two weeks ago.
Without any major shifts in bullish or bearish sentiment, bears continue to outnumber bulls as has been the case for a record 44 weeks in a row. That being said, the bull-bear spread has been showing single-digit readings for three weeks in a row. The only other time during the streak of negative readings that the same could be said was last August.
While the record streak of overall bearish sentiment readings lives on for the AAII survey, combining the AAII survey with other sentiment readings like the NAAIM Exposure Index and the Investors Intelligence survey shows sentiment is finally back to bullish, if even just barely. As shown in the first chart below, the average sentiment survey is now very slightly above historical average readings. That is the first time this has occurred in over a year, bringing to an end a record streak of negative readings.
Editor’s Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
