- EUR/JPY is facing hurdles in extending its recovery move above 144.40, upside bias still intact.
- Hawkish ECB bets have supported the Euro amid an absence of contagion effects in the European banking sector.
- The RSI (14) is on the verge of shifting into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00.
The EUR/JPY pair is struggling to extend its gains above the immediate resistance of 144.40 in the Asian session. The cross is expected to extend its upside journey as the release of the dovish Bank of Japan (BoJ) minutes has impacted the Japanese Yen.
Ex-BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda maintained its expansionary stance on monetary policy in order to stabilize inflation above the 2% target for a sustained period. Japan’s domestic demand has not picked up yet and wages are still vulnerable to trigger price pressures.
On the Eurozone front, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue its 50 basis points (bps) interest rate hike spell as inflation has spiked again and restrictive monetary policy could support in taming the persistent inflation.
Economists at Commerzbank are of the view that “From the market’s point of view, the ECB has suddenly become one of the most hawkish central banks, which might support the Euro as long as there are no contagion effects in the European banking sector.”
A V-shape recovery demonstrated by EUR/JPY on March 13 low at 141.37 amid hawkish ECB bets has pushed it back into the long consolidation formed on an hourly scale. The consolidation has formed in a wide range of 143.87-145.57 and a break into the same indicates solid strength in the Euro bulls.
The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 143.93 would continue to provide a cushion to the Euro.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is on the verge of shifting into the bullish range of 60.00-80.00. An occurrence of the same would trigger the upside momentum.
Going forward, an upside move above the round-level barricade of 145.00 will drive the cross toward March 02 high at 145.57, followed by November 23 high at 146.14.
On the flip side, a downside move below March 14 low at 142.53 would negate the bullish reversal and will expose the cross to February 24 low at 142.13. A slippage below the latter would further drag the asset toward March 13 low at 141.37.
EUR/JPY hourly chart
