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Market Update – February 10 – Hawkish FedSpeak & a Japanese Surprise


FEDSpeak (Barkin) – remains Hawkish – Stocks fell again the NASDAQ tumbled -1.02%, while the S&P 500 slid –0.88%, and the Dow lost -0.73%. #TSLA (+3.00%) bucked the trend. All eyes on the credit market as the 2/10yr rate remains 80 bp+ inverted 7 Terminal rate edges higher to 5.15%. Overnight RBA minutes more hawkishness and worries over higher inflation, China CPI dipped, Japanese PPI unchanged, and potential new BOJ Governor Amamiya – “appropriate to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy” and the “Yield Curve Controls do not need more flexibility”. However, UK GDP -0.5% December, avoids recession by a whisper. Raft of other data biased to the upside.  USOIL cools but holds $78.00, Gold lost close to 2% and BTC down over 5% at $21.8k as the SEC turns up the regulation heat.

BREAKING _ JPY rallies +1.00% as Nikkei report that Kazuo Ueda is the preferred candidate to replace Gov. Kuroda. An2 apparent less Dovish candidate than other candidates.  USDJPY down to 130.80 from 131.85 highs earlier today.

  • FXUSD Index holds 103.00 at 103.13, up from 102.50 lows yesterdayEUR holds over 1.0700 at 1.0734, down from a 1.0790 on Thursday, Sterling ran from 1.2060 lows to 1.2180 highs yesterday before testing back to 1.2100 now. 
  • Stocks – The US markets slumped again  (-0.61% to 1.68%) led by #GOOGL -4.54% US500 -0.88% (-36.36) 4081, breaching the key 4100. US500 FUTS 4088 now. 

  • Commodities – USOil – Futures topped at $78.50 yesterday before sinking to $76.50 and back to $77.70 now and heading for a +5% gain this week. Gold – tanked from $1890 highs yesterday to $1854 lows before recovering $1860.
  • Cryptocurrencies  – BTC – Tested $21.6k lows today, down -8.7% from the weekly high on Wednesday over $23.4k.

Today Canadian Jobs Report, US UoM Consumer Sentiment, ECB TLTRO III, EU Leaders Summit, Speeches from Fed’s Waller & Harker, ECB’s Schnabel, BoE’s Pill.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPJPY (-0.72%). Tanked on the Nikkei scoop regarding next BOJ Governor. Sank from a test of 159.60 earlier to 158.00 now. MA’s now lower, MACD histogram & signal line positive but declining, RSI 26.05 & OS, H1 ATR 0.2900, Daily ATR 1.558.

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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