While Friday’s jobs report is the near term focus, attention is already turning to CPI on April 12.
USD wobbled initially and stumbled to 101.4 on the data, but recovered to close at 101.75. Another data miss, a further drop in bonds. Treasuries rallied further after weaker ISM services and ADP numbers added to expectations for a slowing economy that will keep the FOMC hawks grounded, if not in May, then in June. The combination of risk aversion, reduced expectations for Fed tightening, short covering, and technicals all helped propel the move. Wall Street was mixed all session & Asian equities declined following the US lower as investors switched their focus to the prospect of a recession. German industrial production surged 2.0% m/m in February, adding to signs that activity has strengthened, and that Germany will escape a technical recession! UK house prices rose unexpectedly in March.
Overnight – China & HK reopened but the regions stocks also remained heavy ahead of Easter Weekend. – Chinese Services PMI grew strongly, the AUD trade balance was better than expected but weighed on AUD & NZD.
- FX – USDIndex ranging 101.11-101.29. EUR and GBP are weaker but steady above 1.0900 and 1.2450 respectively. JPY also lost some ground against USD rebounding to 131.50.
- Stocks – US100 dropped -1.07%, while the US500 fell -0.25%, with the US30 rising 0.24%. Western Alliance Bancorp shares have fallen further today, dropping some -17% following an update on its Q1 financials yesterday on a lack of details. Losses are being pared slightly after just releasing further information on its deposits, noting total deposits declined to $47.6 bln in Q1 from $53.6 bln to end Q4. It is slated to announce its earnings on April 18 after the close.
- Commodities – USOil is sideways between $79-$80.
- Gold – prices have slipped to $2012 from $2032, but the contract is holding above $2000 after breaking that barrier yesterday (closing basis) for the first time since March 2022.
- Cryptocurrencies – BTC flat at $28k.
Today – US Jobless Claims, Canadian Employment data & Speech from the Fed’s key Hawk – Bullard.
Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.52%). On EU open rebounded from 82.42 but holds well below PP. MAs reversed but not bullishly crossed yet, while MACD & RSI remain negative.
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