The USD continues to rotate (USDIndex at 101.60) as PMI data surprised to the upside (Composite hit a 11-mth high) and added to 25bp hike (CME Fed Funds Futures 89%) expectations next week from the FOMC. Treasuries rose & the 2/10 yield curve is now 60 bp inverted. Stocks closed flat 10.4% JPY slips after Ueda suggest no change to policy this week. AUD & NZD lower. Oil continues to decline and USOil is below $77.00, Gold is at $1980 as USD holds and yields remain bid, & BTC is now under $28k, -9.00% since last Monday.
Overnight UK House Price Inflation cools to 0.2% from 0.8%. #BBBY files for Bankruptcy.
- FX – USDIndex continues to rotate but biased higher, trades at 101.50, EUR tested 1.1000 zone again earlier, back to 1.0985 now. JPY tests back to 134.50 from 133.50 lows on Friday and Sterling holds over 1.2400 up from lows at 1.2370 on Friday.
- Stocks – US markets closed flat (+0.07% to 0.11%) (#Albermerle -10.00% (Chile nationalised Lithium production) & #AMZN +3.03% (analyst upgrade) & P&G +3.46% (Earnings beat) #US500 closed +3.73 (0.09%) at 4133. – US500 FUTS are lower today at 4135 and below the key resistance at 4175 & 4150. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Google & Intel all report this week. Five of the major tech stocks have accounted for over 65% of the S&P500’s gains (7%) this year, watch this space. Major tech bulls at Wedbush Securities are looking for upside surprises from the tech majors, with an accent on cost cutting, job shedding and AI updates.
- Commodities – USOil – Futures slipped again today, under $77.00 to test $76.70 as recession fears grow, Gold – continued to slip too, testing $1971 on Friday, & back to $1981 now.
- Cryptocurrencies – BTC breached the key $28k on Friday to test $27.2k lows, back to $27.6k today.
Today – Australia & New Zealand closed for ANZAC day, German Ifo, Speeches from ECB’s Panetta & de Guindos, Earnings Coca-Cola, Credit Suisse (61.2bn CHF was withdrawn in Q1 as depositors & investors exited).
Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.29%). Continued to gain from Friday’s rally from 1.6250 to 1.6460 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive but flat, RSI 73.26, OB but also flat, H1 ATR 0.00171 Daily ATR 0.01211.
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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
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