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Market Update – April 18 – USD Holds Gains, Chinese GDP & UK Jobs Spike

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The USD cooled from a 2-day rally despite strong Empire State Manufacturing Index, Stocks closed flat and Yields (10yr 3.591%) held onto gains. Overnight strong  Chinese data (GDP hit 4.5% in Q1 vs 4.0% & 2.9%), Retail Sales were 10.6% from 3.5% and Unemployment fell to 5.3% from 5.6%. UK Jobs beat (28.2k new jobs vs -11.2k last time, Earnings continue to be very hot at 5.9% vs 5.7%, Unemployment was 1 tick higher at 3.8% too adding to the bid on Sterling and increasing chatter of stagflation in the UK and pressure on the BOE to act again. Asian markets are also subdued despite Chinese data. Us Futures hold at recent highs. 

  • FXUSDIndex rallied to 101.90 and trades at a previous intra-day key pivot level at  101.65. EUR declined further to 1.0910 rejecting 1.1000. Today 1.0950 remains immediate resistance. JPY pushed higher again and breached 134.50 briefly today. Sterling moved down to 1.2355 lows yesterday but is testing back to 1.2400 today following the UK jobs data. 
  • Stocks – US markets closed flat but positive across all sectors (0.28% to 0.33%) #US500 closed +13.68 pts. at 4151. – US500 FUTS are higher today at 4177 and above the key  resistance at 4175. #SST -9.18%, MRNA -8.36%, Roblox -12.01%.  #GOOGL -2.66% (Rumour that Samsung is to use Bing, not Google for searches) Musk; latest to announce investment into to new AI platform to rival ChatGPT.

  • Commodities – USOil – Futures declined into $80.30 yesterday but has recovered to $81.00 day. Gold – continued to slip, testing $1982, before recovering the key $2000 today 
  • Cryptocurrencies BTC declined from the $30k level yesterday to $29K and back to $29.6k today. 

Today German ZEW, US Housing Starts/Building Permits, Canadian CPI, Fed Discount Rate Minutes, Speeches from Fed’s Bowman, BOC’s Macklem & Rogers, ECB’s Elderson.  Earnings from Ericsson (beat), United Airlines, JNJ, Netflix, Goldman Sachs & BofA.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.59%). Rallied from a decline to 0.6680 yesterday to test 0.6740 today, 0.6750 and 0.6780 next resistance areas. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 66.50 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00090, Daily ATR 0.00751.

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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