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Intuit: Benefiting From Shift To Online Ecosystem (NASDAQ:INTU)

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Sundry Photography

This analysis examines Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ:INTU) and its ongoing transition towards its Online Ecosystem and Software as a Service. The focus is on the company’s growth drivers, with an initial comparison between its online and desktop customer bases. Additionally, we evaluate

SMB Segment Revenue ($ mln)

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Average

QuickBooks Online Accounting

449

695

980

1,354

1,699

2,267

Growth %

54.7%

41.0%

38.2%

25.5%

33.4%

38.6%

Online Services

409

511

683

828

1,051

2,171

Growth %

25.0%

33.7%

21.2%

26.9%

106.6%

42.7%

Total Online

858

Internet penetration

ITU, Statistics Times, Khaveen Investments

Total Paying Customers (‘mln’) (excluding MailChimp)

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Average

Online Customers

3.5

4.5

5.0

5.7

6.2

Growth %

28.6%

11.1%

14.0%

8.8%

15.6%

Desktop Customers

1.1

1.2

1.1

1.0

1.0

Growth %

9.1%

-8.3%

-9.1%

0.0%

-2.1%

Total Paying Customers

4.6

5.7

6.1

6.7

7.2

Growth %

23.9%

7.0%

9.8%

7.5%

12.1%

Total Paying Customers (‘mln’) (excluding MailChimp)

2022

2023F

2024F

2025F

2026F

2027F

Online Customers

6.2

7.2

8.2

9.3

10.5

11.7

Growth %

15.6%

14.6%

13.6%

12.6%

11.6%

Desktop Customers

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.9

Growth %

-2.1%

-2.1%

-2.1%

-2.1%

-2.1%

Total Paying Customers

7.2

8.1

9.2

10.3

11.4

12.6

Growth %

13.2%

12.6%

12.0%

11.3%

10.5%

Average Revenue Per Customer (excluding MailChimp)

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Average

Online Ecosystem Revenue ($ mln)

1,206

1,663

2,182

2,750

3,676

Online Customers (‘mln’)

3.5

4.5

5.0

5.7

6.2

Online Paying ARPC ($)

345

370

436

482

593

Growth %

7.3%

18.1%

10.6%

22.9%

14.7%

Desktop Ecosystem Revenue ($ mln)

1,855

1,870

1,868

1,938

2,022

Desktop Customers (‘mln’

1.1

1.2

1.1

1.0

1.0

Desktop Paying ARPC ($)

1,686

1,558

1,698

1,938

2,022

Growth %

-7.6%

9.0%

14.1%

4.3%

5.0%

Revenue Forecasts

2022

2023F

2024F

2025F

2026F

2027F

Online Paying ARPC ($) (‘a’)

634

727

827

932

1,041

1,152

Growth %

14.7%

13.7%

12.7%

11.7%

10.7%

Online Customers (‘mln’) (‘b’)

7.0

8.1

9.3

10.5

11.9

13.2

Growth %

15.6%

14.6%

13.6%

12.6%

11.6%

Online Ecosystem Revenue ($ mln) (‘c’)

4,438

5,885

7,669

9,819

12,351

15,260

Growth %

32.6%

30.3%

28.0%

25.8%

23.6%

Desktop Paying ARPC ($) (‘d’)

2,022

2,122

2,228

2,338

2,454

2,576

Growth %

5.0%

5.0%

5.0%

5.0%

5.0%

Desktop Customers (‘mln’) (‘e’)

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.9

Growth %

-2.1%

-2.1%

-2.1%

-2.1%

-2.1%

Desktop Ecosystem Revenue ($ mln) (‘f’)

2,022

2,078

2,136

2,195

2,256

2,318

Growth %

2.8%

2.8%

2.8%

2.8%

2.8%

Segment Operating Margins ($ mln)

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Small Business & Self-Employed Revenue (‘SBO’)

2,574

3,061

3,533

4,050

4,688

6,460

SBO Operating Margins

43.2%

43.3%

43.8%

51.6%

55.2%

54.2%

Consumer Revenue

2,182

2,508

2,775

3,136

3,563

3,915

Consumer Operating Margins

63.1%

63.3%

62.8%

65.8%

62.8%

63.4%

Credit Karma Revenue

865

1,805

Credit Karma Operating Margins

21.0%

29.4%

ProConnect

440

456

476

493

517

546

ProConnect Operating Margins

60.5%

62.3%

66.8%

70.2%

72.0%

70.1%

Total Net Revenue

5,196

6,025

6,784

7,679

9,633

12,726

Total Operating Margins

53.0%

53.1%

53.2%

58.6%

55.9%

54.2%

intuit valuation

Khaveen Investments

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