Events to Look Out For Next Week

Forex

By dancarl Last updated Apr 15, 2023

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Another key week for Economic Data, dominated by inflation numbers and a new round of the key forward looking PMI data. The Earnings Season also gets into full swing this week with more big financial services companies reporting led by Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, ably supported by Netflix, AT&T and Johnson & Johnson.

Monday – 17 April 2023

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Empire State Manufacturing Index (USD, GMT 012:30) – this key leading indicator of economic health from 200 manufacturers in New York state can be particularly volatile. It dived to -24.6 last month and has been in negative territory since November, expectations are for a -14.1 reading.

Tuesday – 18 April 2023

Gross Domestic Product & Retail Sales (CNY, GMT 02:00) – The Chinese data is expected to show that GDP continues to recover following the rapid reopening of the economy. Q/Q GDP is expected to increase to 1.3% from 0.0% and the annualized figure is expected to show a healthy 4.8% from 2.9%. Industrial Production and Fixed Asset investments are also expected to increase. Conversely, the Retail Sales numbers for March are likely to show a growth of only 0.8% from 3.5% in February.
Claimant Count Change (GBP, GMT 07:00) – UK job numbers, wage growth and unemployment rate could determine the next move for Sterling. A mixed set of data is often produced. Average Earnings are expected to cool to 6.2% from 6.5% and Earnings including to 4.9% from 5.7%. Unemployment could surprise to the down side but is expected to remain unchanged at 3.7%.
Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 12:30) The headline inflation rate in Canada is expected to decline again. The Y/Y March number could be 4.7% from 5.2% in February and the key Core CPI rate declining to 4.2% from 4.7%. The BOC were the first of the G7 countries to pause interest rate hikes but last week warned that inflation rates were not declining quickly enough as they signalled a Hawkish hold.

Wednesday – 19 April 2023

Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 06:00) The headline inflation rate in the UK is also expected to decline again, but remain heavy. The Y/Y March number is expected to be a hefty 10.0% from 10.4% in February and the key Core CPI rate declining to 5.9% from 6.2%. Additionally, and worryingly for the BOE, the RPI level, on which many wage settlements are based, could actually rise in March to an eye-watering 14.9% from 13.8%. Prices remain very elevated in the UK and although recession, in GDP terms, looks like it may have been avoided, problems persist.
Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 14:00) – The headline inflation rate across the English Channel in the Eurozone is expected to remain unchanged at 0.9% in the final reading for March, with an annual figure of 6.9%. The key Core CPI rate should also remain unchanged at 5.7% y/y and 1.2% for March.

Thursday – 20 April 2023

Consumer Price Index (NZD, GMT 00:00) – The headline inflation rate in New Zealand is expected to increase to 2.20% from 1.4% for the Quarter and to 7.5% from 7.2% on a y/y basis. RBNZ interest rates are the highest of the key currencies at 5.25%.
German Producer Price Index (EUR, GMT 06:00) – March PPI figures are anticipated at -3.2% for the headline and 0.3% for the core, after respective figures of -0.3% and zero in February. As expected readings would result in the y/y headline PPI metric being unchanged at a significant 15.8%.
Weekly Claims & Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – Last week’s Claims number jumped to 239k and raised the 4-week average to 240k and continuing claims remained over 1.82 million. This significant rise sparked a new 12-month low for the USD as the 13-month US interest rate hike cycle begins to show signs of impacting the hot jobs market and suggesting the FED may be looking to pause in June if not May. Another key number today could tip the balance of probabilities. The Philly Fed is expected to improve to -15.4 from -23.2 but remain very weak and in negative territory.

Friday – 21 April 2023

PMI Day (AUD, GMT 23:00 Thursday) – Manufacturing 48.8 from 49.1, Services 51.2 from 50.7
Consumer Price Index (JPY, GMT 00:00) – The headline inflation rate in Japan is expected to decrease to 2.6% from 3.3% y/y, the CORE number ex energy could be unchanged at 3.5%, whist the core ex fresh food 2.5% from 3.1%.
PMI Day (JPY, GMT 00:00) – Manufacturing 48.9 from 49.2, Services 54 from 54.
PMI Day (EUR, GMT 08:00) – Manufacturing 46.9 from 47.3, Services 56.3 from 55, Composite at 54.2.
PMI Day (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Manufacturing 47.9 from 47.9, Services 53.9 from 52.9 leaving the Composite at 52.7.
PMI Day (USD, GMT 13:45) – Manufacturing 49.5 from 49.2, Services 53.8 from 52.6.

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Stuart Cowell

Head Market Analyst

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