- Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 160k August Non-Farm Payroll increase is anticipated, after gains of 187k in July, 185k in June, and 281k in May. Initial claims have bounced in August after a temporary recovery in July, but continuing claims remain tight. We assume a 5k factory jobs rise after a -2k July decrease. We expect the jobless rate to hold steady at 3.5% from July, versus a 54-year low for the two-digit rate of 3.43% in January. Hours-worked are assumed to rise 0.1% after a -0.2% July dip, while the workweek holds steady at 34.3. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.4%, after a 0.4% gain in July, while the y/y wage gain should hold at 4.4% for a third month.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to rise to 46.6 from 46.4 in July and a 3-year low of 46.0 in June. We saw an 18-year high of 63.7 in March of 2021, an 11-year low of 41.6 in April of 2020, and an all-time low of 30.3 in June of 1980.
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