- Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – A 180k July nonfarm payroll increase is anticipated, after gains of 209k in June, 306k in May, and 217k in April. Initial claims tightened in July after a rise in June. We expect the jobless rate to hold steady at 3.6% from June, versus a 54-year low for the two-digit rate of 3.43% in January. Hours-worked are assumed to rise 0.1% after a 0.4% June gain, while the workweek holds steady at 34.4. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.4%, after a 0.4% gain in June. The ensuing strength in wage gains has allowed continued robust y/y increases, though the return of low-paid workers to the workforce is likely restraining wage increases.
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