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Devon Energy Stock: Limited Upside Near Term (NYSE:DVN)



I get a lot of questions about oil and natural gas producer Devon Energy (NYSE:DVN) and whether it’s a good buy at current levels, down more than 25% from its 2022 peak even after factoring in the benefit of DVN’s

Breakdown of expenses and realized prices for DVN

Cash flow Model for DVN Q1 2023 (Devon Energy Q1 2023 Supplemental Tables)

Chart of Henry Hub and Waha natural gas prices since early 2020

Henry Hub and Waha natural gas prices (Bloomberg)

Cost and realized pricing estimates for DV based on midpoint of management's guidance

Full Year Cash Flow Model for DVN (Devon Energy Guidance Tables May 8th)

Chart of US oil futures prices out to December 2025

WTI Futures Curve to Year-End 2025 (Bloomberg)

A table showing a breakdown of DVN's realized energy prices for 2023

DVN Estimated 2023 Gas Realizations (Devon Energy Q1 2023 Guidance, Bloomberg)

A graph of WTI oil futures curves on May 10 and June 13, 2023

WTI Futures Curves May 10 and June 13 (Bloomberg)

Chart of NYMEX Henry Hub Natural gas Prices through 2025

NYMEX Natural Gas Futures Curve (Bloomberg)

Table showing basic DCF valuation for DV

DVN DCF Valuation Table (Author’s Estimates, Devon, Bloomberg)

Chart of the Citi Economic Surprise Index and WTI Oil Prices

Citi China Economic Surprise Index and Oil Prices (Bloomberg)

Table showing DCF valuation for DV

Discounted Cash Flow Model for DV (Author’s Estimates)

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